We have been busy. Over the past ten days, ten groups of ten persons each, one hundred persons in all, stratified by age, gender, occupation, education, political affiliation (including 0-political affiliation) and region (South, Centre, North and Gozo) were invited to attend a two hour focus session to discuss the relative merits/demerits of the five potential candidates for the position of Leader of the Labour Party. The focus group sessions were held in private residences and run by skilled and experienced moderators and observed by equally skilled and experienced observers and analysts.
We are organizing ourselves to be able to run such focus groups regularly and well beyond 5th June. In fact, sufficient funds permitting, we are aiming to to keep the exercise going at least up to the end of 2008. Seriously implemented focus groups, if complemented by serious surveys – and we mean S-E-R-I-O-U-S surveys – can help us keep in touch with the people (A-L-L the people). The methodology used corresponds to international best practice in this field and was audited by qualified foreign specialists. Participants were encouraged to express themselves about a number of themes and then quizzed regarding how they felt each of the five candidates would fair with respect to each theme. Here are some of the results:
1.0 THEMES:
1.1 ON EUROPE
George Abela: Excellent credentials from Meusac days but has problems with Labour grassroots because of the same
Evarist Bartolo: Moderate stand but the Kenneth Wain soundbite undoes him.
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: No track record on the subject.
Michael Falzon: No track record on the subject but his hunting connections do nothing to increase his credentials.
Joseph Muscat: Campaigned against membership but proved his worth in the European Parliament where he outperformed even the Nationalists.
1.2 THE ECONOMY
George Abela: No track record on the subject.
Evarist Bartolo: No track record on the subject.
Marie Louise Colerio Preca: No track record on the subject.
Michael Falzon: Lawyer by training, banker by profession. Has insight of finance.
Joseph Muscat: The only candidate who studied economics, worked in the sector and seems to know what he is talking about.
1.3 SOCIAL ISSUES
George Abela: Good credentials, especially on workers’ rights.
Evarist Bartolo: Good credentials, especially on education.
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Excellent credentials. Nobody can top her.
Michael Falzon: Good credentials, comes across as someone who emphatises (‘feels for and with’) a lot.
Joseph Muscat: Good credentials, campaigned on improved workers’ rights in the European Parliament.
1.4 DIVORCE
George Abela: Non-committal.
Evarist Bartolo: Expressed himself in favour.
Marie Louis Colerio Preca: Non-commital but can be expected to be in favour because of her awareness about the what is going on in our society.
Michael Falzon: Non-committal. His religious roots might make it difficult for him to tackle the subject.
Joseph Muscat: In favour and already committed to presenting legislation and allowing a free vote in Parliament.
1.5 ENVIRONMENT
George Abela: Goes down well with NGOs but his role as MEPA legal consultant might prove a very difficult problem.
Evarist B artolo: Excellent credentials, campaigned on many environmental issues.
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Good credentials.
Michael Falzon: Hunting lobby is a hindrance to his otherwise good credentials.
Joseph Muscat: Excellent credentials, has been continuously referring to the need of an “environmentalist” Labour Party, and campaigned with many environment NGOs.
2.0 MARKET SEGMENTS:
2.1 MALTA NORTH
George Abela: Moderate appeal
Evarist Bartolo: High appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Low appeal
Michael Falzon: Moderate appeal
Joseph Muscat: High appeal
2.2 MALTA CENTRE:
George Abela: High appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Moderate appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: High appeal
Michael Falzon: Moderate appeal
Joseph Muscat: Moderate appeal
2.3 MALTA SOUTH:
George Abela: Moderate appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Low appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: High appeal
Michael Falzon: High appeal
Joseph Muscat: High appeal
2.4 GOZO:
George Abela: High appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Mode rate appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Moderate appeal
Michael Falzon: High appeal
Joseph Muscat: High appeal
2.5 NEW VOTERS:
George Abela: Moderate appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Moderate appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Low appeal
Michael Falzon: Low appeal
Joseph Muscat: High appeal
2.6 WOMEN:
George Abela: Moderate appeal
Evarist Bartolo: High appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: High appeal
Michael Falzon: Low appeal
Joseph Muscat: Moderate appeal
2.7 FLOATERS:
George Abela: High appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Moderate appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Low appeal
Michael Falzon: Low appeal
Joseph Muscat: Moderate appeal
2.8 LABOURITES:
George Abela: Low appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Moderate appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: High appeal
Michael Falzon: Moderate appeal
Joseph Muscat: High appeal
2.9 NATIONALISTS:
George Abela: High appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Low appeal
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Low appeal
Michael Falzon: Moderate appeal
Joseph Muscat: Low appeal
2.10 EDUCATION:
George Abela: Most appealing to voters with low and medium education but tending to homogeneous appeal
Evarist Bartolo: Most appealing to voters with medium and higher education
Marie Louise Coleiro Preca: Most appealing to voters with low and medium education
Michael Falzon: Most appealing to voters with low and medium education
Joseph Muscat: Most appealing to voters with medium and higher education but tending to homogeneous appeal
Note on education: (1) Low: Primary, (2) Medium: Secondary, (3) Higher: Higher, (4) Homogeneous: even distribution between 1, 2 and 3.
These are only preliminary results from the analysis of focus group materials. We are working to correlate them to current country-wide surveys and to aggregate delegate profiles. What emerges is the near-certainty that only three, at best, of the five contestants for Labour’s top job stand a reasonable chance of success. More to come in the coming days.
Meanwhile, tell us what you think.